Track — Synthetic generator + 3-algorithm bake-off
seed#track
Up: 70_Tracks-MOC
The starter project — exercises all three research areas at once. Build from 80_Track-Template.
The bet
A Markov+Hawkes generator with: one planted motif (discovery), one predictive feature + decoys (prediction), one mid-stream drift (anomaly). Then run a 3-algorithm bake-off and score recovery of each planted signal honestly.
Why it's the first track
You know the answer key, so you can measure precision/recall, ARI/NMI, and detection delay against ground truth — the core researcher reflex (Planting signals, Difficulty knobs).
Build on
Generating background traffic · Markov chains and HMMs · Point processes · Synthetic-data toolkit · Evaluation theory
Definition of done
First experiment note written before the run; honest recovery scores for each of the three planted signals.